Sunday, March 13, 2011

Sunn Like 12 in Cabinet




Sunn's famous folded horn cabinet design (Hendrix [about '67], the Who, Dusty Springfield, Mountain, Etc.)
Uses both the front wave of the speaker and the back
going through a labyrinth to come out in sync.
Carvin 12 inch Speaker, closest to the original I could find for the sound wave characteristics, Original had JBL D120's [Manley, gets a tip of the hat]
This is the same Sunn design based upon their drawings in a 12 inch cab - made to last 50 years 1/2" solid birch plywood, chrome corners a bazillion screws and a gallon of glue.

Epiphone Power Bass





Epiphone (Epi) by Gibson
ALL BLACK
PJ "Power Bass"
Upgraded EMG Active pickups 9 volt
Rosewood fingerboard
Fast Action Straight neck
Bridge is through the body for great Sustain
2 volume and
1 Tone knob

Great Precision sound or Jazz bass bridge sound
Or a Infinite Number of Combo's for YOUR sound

Leslie Model 12 ( I thnk the ONLY one)





Leslie Speaker Model 12 for The Thomas Organ Company
serial No 1324
35 Watts
10 inch Rotary speaker
1/4" in and stand alone a/c plug
ONE speed
NEVER seen or heard of another one.

Peavey VTM 60




Peavey VTM 60
the poor child born just before the 5150
they are 1/2 brothers
60 watts RMS - Geek speak for a LOUD 60
2 6L6's and 4 12AX7's
similar to a Marshall JCM 800 [Not a Boogie]
Hi Lo Gain input
Standard EQ ~ Hi Mid Lo
Pre/Post volume
Presence
8 Dip switch [for tome]
Gain, Compression, Low Mid Hi
Find YOUR Sound

Mele Uke with Rope binding






Mele Ukulele
Made in the Philippines Setup In Hawaii (Maui?)
This is a original Braddah Soprano Uke
from the "Original" Martin Blueprints
Rope inlay and K&K Piezo pickup
Brand New $250
Rope inlay add 200
Pick up add 75

Cavalier G&L - MFD humbuckers

G&L Cavalier
Serial no. G-012479 indicates a 1984
Swamp Ash body dated jul 20 1983
Ebony fingerboard - Neck dated 7/14/1983
3 way pick up switch
unusual Tone options -
Vol, Treb, Bass
- controls
Dual Fulcrum Bridge
about 700Total made
Pick ups
MFD humbuckers model- "HG-2R" 4.3-4.4k impedance A little warmer than the ASAT neck High Output and more midrange (NOT a Gibson copy) - Bright for 'buckers, Woodie sound very versatile
Johnny Meeks Rockabilly to Quarterflash, Tone can range from SRV (Stevie Ray Vaughan) to he Beach Boys
Solid; 2-piece ash
Finish: Clear, polyester
Neck: 2-piece maple, bolt-on 3 bolt with tilt-a-just
Fingerboard: Ebony; pearloid dot markers
Number of Frets: 22
Pickguard: Black-white-black plastic laminate with black crinkle powder coated aluminum control plate
Bridge: G&L Dual Fulcrum Vibrato, chrome
Nut: Plastic
Tuners: G&L/Schaller, sealed, chrome
Pickups: Two, G&L Magnetic Field Design Offset Humbucking with adjustable pole pieces
Controls: Master volume, treble, and bass, 3-way pickup selector
Scale Length: 25 1/2 inches
Neck Width at Nut: 1 5/8 inches
Body Width at Lower Bout: 12 7/8 inches
Body Depth: 1 5/8 inches
Weight: 8lbs +

`

Wednesday, February 9, 2011

So What Does Any of This Mean To Me?

How does any of this effect me personally, Daily? or even change my life?

Glad you asked -

If we plan our lives and we do, based upon false or misled assumptions (thing CPI, value of a debased dollar) they we probably will not get o our goal. now if you just hope to get somewhere You will.

Lets' think about a basic retirement plan- If you watch TV or listen to the talking head gurus you should save 10-15% of your income (or max out) into a 401(k) or IRA and balance with a Roth too and when you get to retirement you can live on 4-5% on you r nest egg with our out living it Sounds great.
So if I want to live on a 50k income in retirement I need to have 20-25 times this ( 1-1.25 Million) saved just before retirement right?

Well lets dig a little deeper

This whole plan that EVERYBODY supports or uses has some assumptions (what did your Mama tell you about Assume?)

1 - You can choose how much you retire on (the 50k) How do you know what your lifestyle and need will be in 20, 30,40 years form now? Or what the Government will mandate? Or what you will choose to do or health care you want to do?

2 What if you don't get the magical rate of return the market NEVER promises? (Doesn't the SEC make them say Past performance is no indication of future performance?)

3 Inflation is constant or the CPI is accurate, this is a farce, CPI is only accurate if you do not use or use food or fuel, and buy exactly the goods an services they choose . (which changes every 10 years, has your life changed in the last 10 years?)

4 The poor Trinity Study that states that if you only with draw 4% you will not eat into your nest egg, This study Assumes that you are fully invested is the same market and risk factor while in retirement that you were invested in to get to retirement, you never have a 1987 or .com collapse or 2008-2009 type years in retirement (correction or crash) [that seems to be every 10 years] , - If you do that the whole things is hogwash. so how much can I withdraw safely?

You can only tell at the end of each year, not 20 years in advance.
So don't be retired for more that 10 years and begin right after a correction a big one, boy that sounds exciting.

Wait... What if we Assume inflation is 3% (total hog wash) they your current 75k income will need to be over 150K in 30 years, to have the same lifestyle and if the "assumption" of 80% income in retirement is used then you still will need 120k to have a similar lifestyle. What if inflation is Higher? How would we know?

Can yo see Why "just a little " inflation is BAD!

Don't forget this -
you can NOT assist parents or children and YOU MUST have your mortgage paid off - Whhoa,. what about mt tax bite on the mortgage - so sorry.


All of this income you saved for is now fully taxable as Ordinary income ie the same as you pay now. There is a rumor you pay less tax while retired- ONLY IF you make much less income and to change brackets.

Uncle Sam gets a bite at that apple one way or another, that's why they are called "Qualified Plans"; Qualified by Uncle Sam and the IRS.

Wait if tax rates go up or brackets move or there are brand spankin' new taxes what will that mean?

All I know is that Congress (you voted for 'em) has made promises we can not pay currently so we (American's , not just Working Americans) will have to pay that some how, I do not know how.


(Not to mention the Debt we have on our grandchildren , children and our shoulders - To save companies that profited in the good years [no problem with that]; then made BAD business decisions and didn't save for a rainy day SO, WE the entire population pay for it)

Friday, January 28, 2011

Those Green Things, The Dead Presidents and a few others

But when have you actually stopped to consider what money is – what it
means, what it stands for?

Here is a snippet from Judy Shelton's A Guide To Sound Money (available as a free pdf)

Open your wallet and take out a dollar.
What you will notice first about this green-tinged piece of paper – all U.S.
banknotes measure 2.61 inches wide by 6.14 inches long – is the imagery.
If you are holding a one-dollar bill, you no doubt recognize the portrait of
our nation’s first president, George Washington, encased in an oval frame.
He seems to gaze back at you.
Turn it over now and you will see the powerful symbol of a pyramid with
an “all-seeing eye” at its apex. The pyramid is meant to denote strength
and duration, while the floating eye signifies divine guidance in the
American cause. An inscription in Latin in printed above, Annuit Coeptis,
which translates as “He Favors Our Undertakings.” There’s a banner below
imprinted with another Latin phrase, Novus Ordo Seclorum, meaning “A
New Order of the Ages.”

It refers to the new era launched in 1776 by the Declaration of
Independence – The American Era.


The Founders were keenly aware that America’s bold approach to
organizing civil society under the overarching principle of personal
freedom could potentially change the destiny of mankind. It was based
on a radical concept: self-government. And it relied on the essential
notion of natural rights granted by our Creator – a remarkable theory that
meant citizens were deserving of equal rights and equal protection under
the law.

The Latin words, E Pluribus Unum, proclaiming “Out of Many, One.”

And indeed, it is faith in the American idea that unites us,
the shared belief that individual liberty can be wholly
consistent with a profoundly moral nation. The daring commitment to
self-rule invoked by our Founders would prove justified by the ability of
Americans to thrive and prosper when entrusted with economic freedom
and personal responsibility.

The images printed on our currency are meant to underscore our belief in
the great American experiment. They are aimed at providing assurances
that our nation’s confidence in self-government is merited.
And on all U.S. forms of money – every banknote, every coin – you will see
the declaration: “In God We Trust.”

It’s a sobering thought that should serve to remind us that we must never
take our money, or our unique form of self-rule through accountable
government, for granted.

Alas, the integrity of U.S. currency cannot be guaranteed by appealing
to an authority beyond human control. When it comes to government-
supplied money, you cannot outsource trust by invoking the Creator.
Instead, it’s important to realize that money is a man-made invention of
sorts – a useful innovation arising from the marketplace.


It is our responsibility, as self-governing citizens of the United States, to
demand sound money that will remain useful for future generations and
ensure that the sanctity of the American idea prevails.

Wednesday, January 26, 2011

Was Ben Franklin Right ?

Why is it - that those who want a safe job with a big company and stay there for 30-40 years, and are willing to trade lower pay for the security and a gold colored watch.

These are the same people that are so foolish and unsafe with their retirement income behavior? They expect the grandfatherly company to "take care of" their retirement account either with a Pension or full faith and trust that the 401 (k) , at the company, is the only way.


Is this just the group-think or following the expected behavior promoted and don’t think one layer deeper ?

Why would those who promote (read TARP recipients): what to do and how to do it with your retirement income do that?


Why would they do and say those things?

What do they get from it?

What are the alternatives?

What are the down sides of each opportunity?

Could any of this change in the future?

Is there any unseen risk?

IS There A Risk Of - Highly Unlikely BUT Horrific Potential Event? (think, Stock Market and Real Estate Market falling at the same time)


Ben Franklin - They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety.

Monday, January 24, 2011

Taxation

If I could JUST KEEP ALL THE INCOME I EARN, and NOT pay TAXES. Then I could keep it in a coffee can in the backyard and retire .

Keep dreaming, There is always some Joker who says he doesn’t pay taxes because it is illegal or some other dribble. I would not suggest you try this if you like being able to choose when you wake, eat, exercise, who your bunk-mate is or get medical attention.

Taxation is the result of government growth and promises that government makes to people which it can not pay for.

Good ol’ Abe Lincoln and the Civil War changed us from These States that where Untied for a particular reason (Life Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness) and had states rights as well as a LIMITED Federal Government into The United States and a ever growing Federal sprawl. The short sighted Southern States could not see the States Rights and Slavery were two separate issues in the North. So here we are today.

As government makes promises it’s check book can’t pay and there is always a good rationalization to right a check to somebody who “Needs” it. We must increase new taxes, raise the tax rate on existing taxes and add people to the pool to be taxed. Look at the 80/20 rule and who pays taxes in this country.


Thought- if a progressive tax is fair, why not have a progressive pricing the minimum need to survive?


Food or Vegetables ~ for the indigent they are free, if you earn less that $40k gross you pay cost of production (as approved by a Federal Agency, Ha Ha), as you earn more, the prices increase at a rate commensurate with the tax rate. There the rich would pay more just to eat, that would be fair, Right?


WRONG


Humans just don’t work that way – anybody who could earn close to $50k would find a way to ratchet it down to below the $40k barrier. Those with no shame would claim indigence, for all of their family members except one person, who would end up eating as a courtesy of the other family members.



Have you ever thought about how may times a single dollar get taxed by Federal, State, County, and city taxes and fees in a single year?

If that dollar is circulated, at a velocity of 9 times ( number of transitions per year) , how many times is it taxed? 9 minimum, unless it is ever used as payroll, then you so automatically add all the taxes that reduces your gross pay to your net pay. (Fed t income tax, SS, Med, County, City, State, State Disability) Or if a transaction has a "add" on top of the state tax; a county, city or a product dependent tax associated. So a dollar moving through the economy growing by 25% can get taxed by up to 50%+, looks like a net loss to me.


there is even a thought out there that the taxes paid are not compensated by any present service rendered by the government’s apparatus. The government pays interest on capital which has been consumed and no longer exists. The treasury is burdened with the unfortunate results of past policies. - L Von Mises Human Action 4th ed.

Is there a way to have transactions that are not taxed? Glad you asked….more later

Friday, January 21, 2011

Fractional Reserve Banking

Fractional Reserve Banking?

Simple really and profitable if you can get into it.


Imagine you have a $100 bill and you march of to your favorite Banking institution and deposit it into you account. From that moment until you withdrawn some or all of it, that money is in your account for you to oogle over and have.


Well, according to our courts the bank now has possession of it, and can do as they please with it, all the while you have it in your account (really)


Now Banks are not know for swashbuckling adventure, So they would never foolishly offer that capital just to make a high return, unless they had some one insure their mistakes (FDIC) LOL


The FED or Federal Reserve System, mandates that the banks have some amount of that capital on hand, think “It’s a Wonderful Life” and Jimmy Stewart saying” Now Sam how much do you really need?” So you can withdraw dollar bills. On average 10% of their deposits , will be on hand (some more, some less). What happens to the other 90%? The bank get to do as they please. So they crack the whip and put it to work, by lending it . Lending it out to any and everybody they think can repay (or are mandated to lend to), the higher the risk of repayment the higher the rate.


So let me get this straight, the bank is charging interest on money they lent and that same money is still in my account? Yep


It gets better, If that loan($90) is to a person who banks with the same bank, and they deposit the money. The bank keeps 10%($9) on hand and lends the other 90%.($81) All the while giving credit to that person for the full deposit on the money that is still in Your account - WHEW. If this keeps going on you can take that measly $100 and turn it into $900 of lendable money for the bank. Or, what they could do is keep the $100 in the vault and just lend out $900 in one swift action, then receive interest payments on money that never existed. What a gig.


Is there a way to borrow money that is not made our of thin air legally and then pay interest on money from thin air? Yep More later….


Thursday, January 20, 2011

Debasement/Inflation

Debasement and Inflation how do they work together?

For debasement and inflation see post on January 10, 2011, now to continue…

So what are we to do if the monetary system is debased and that causes inflation? So our dollars buy less and less. Which means that in the future (20 years), around the time I want to retire my retired income will have to be twice what it is now, ouch!

So forget this Crazy Idea that I will have less income in retirement or that I will Need Less. Not possible.

We could need double our current income if inflation is only 4% - Now that’s real inflation, not the cook the books CPI number.

[yes, the way CPI is figured keeps changing so CPI indexed payments From the Federal Government can be kept down]

Double is just to keep up our lifestyle, What if our health costs are elective, for quality of life, and not ”approved” how do we pay for that?

Who started that Idea anyway? Uncle Sam ? a Wall Street firm (before they needed TARP)?

If the amount of energy in a community or country (no I will not get metaphysical) is finite until acted upon buy humans, which create more and improve what is stagnate, then we have a rate of increase which may be variable. Politicians being politicians, just like a steady amount of increase in which they have control over. Or get credit for giving away. Can you see why the founding fathers distrusted government as a general rule and the Constitution is a list of restrictive powers for government? Anyway, in order do control or give away more stuff you have to get control of more stuff, If taxes are taxed too much we will have a Revolt,( see American Revolution and English taxation). Soooo government debases in order to have more tokens that are called coins or dollars to pass out and get credit for passing out. Then they (Government) preach that the economy is growing because we have more dollars moving around (GDP). But wait a cotton pickin’ minute these things that look like dollars have less value than a full dollars, but they value only because we are told to accept them as dollars. Poor Keynes thought this was a okie dokie idea as long as he got popular for the idea.

How do we get off this merry – go- round? No politician that is electable is going to fall on their sword to change this.


Wednesday, January 19, 2011

Who's Incharge of our Money

What if we give a group of people a franchise or exclusive right to store WHE’s ?


If we store our WHE’s as “Money” Is it just sitting there good stewardship? Shouldn’t we put it to work? Even Jesus alludes to this (see Matthew 25:27).

So as a extra little service, these store houses for “money” give you a small amount of interest. Why would they do this?


Because from their desk chair, This is just the ”cost” of the commodity that they will sell at a higher cost than what it costs them (just like you and your Company).

Buy or borrow at X sell or lend for X+1, pretty easy.

Better yet - why do We let then determine the rate we pay on our collective money?

We are the lender, why don’t we set the rate or at least a agreement between both parties? Well if we refuse to do business with them we have chosen not to honor their offer, we are in charge of the rate we receive. Why not receive that same (agreeable) rate from our cousin or neighbor (don’t be crazy and try to get a lower rate, just loose the middle man, the market rate is the market rate.)


Just because we ignore opportunities available doesn't mean that they are not available. We choose where we store/invest our money and the safety or risk, we think we know about, is of our choice. We are Free to Choose.

Wednesday, January 12, 2011

Leverage & Your Values

Money is just a way to leverage my WHE’s- look at most first generation person here in America- the will negotiate hard for their pay or WHE’s and then the haggle just as hard when spending those same WHE’s . They “work” both ends of the stick. Once you get to 3 generations born here in the States, if someone negotiates the only focus on one end of the stick - you have just lost 50% of you leverage.

Hey it’s your life, you only have a fixed amount of time to make a offer to the market place and have that offer accepted, and a competitive offer is, in return for that effort,“money”.

Your WHE’s and money are not your values (they may be) but how you spend or trade them is what you value. “Money” is simply a means of exchange it has no value in and of itself :”money” does not control our lives or define who we are.

Prosperity comes from using our WHE and our Human Life Value (HLV, the entire value you bring to the world with your human life) for what we Choose to value and pour our lives into weather in vocation or just apply our WHE to be used to advance . Choose how you “spend” your WHE’s carefully!

Side bar - HLV is how the law quantifies the loss of a life in a monetary terms. It was never is not meant to equal or show the value of emotion or thought or any other intangible. These do not have a lesser value it is just not the economic value a person brings to their family, or society. So a 40 year old, brain surgeon has a higher HLV than a 40 year old Teacher, NOT because society values one over the other but in monetary terms, one will bring more to the table in income, taxes and probably consume more, than the other.


I say, - HLV is more than just he monetary piece of the puzzle and the whole person, every person has HLV. End of story.

HLV can be just as high in each person.

Back in the day, as kids we had rock polishers that would polish rocks with a media to a shine. I think that each one of us as a sack of rocks. Each sack is different in size & types of rocks. We can choose to leave these rocks just as God gave them too us or we can polish them and we can polish them as long as we choose. Some will make them look like fine jewelry, some like fancy stones, and some just a few of the sharp edges will be worn off. These Rocks are our innate talents and skills we all have some, but how we use them and refine them is how we maximize our HLV.


Some may make lots of money, some may be very effective with their time or empathy. These are all just as valuable, at different times and in different places. Weather we use our effort to develop our skills to make money and then use that money to advance our life’s work and HLV, or if we develop or talents and use them directly, think Mother Teresa, does it really matter? If the cause is advanced weather you used your effort directly or indirectly (though leverage of WHE’s and money)? And either way is that not your HLV or your Life’s work?

Tuesday, January 11, 2011

Coins and Paper Money

So what does that mean today? For Rome burned and Nero fiddled – Aztecs have come and gone, same with ancient Greece, Persia, Egypt and England Once highly developed societies that had money and have come and gone as “rulers of the world”, what does this all mean to ME In America Today ?


Money is just a way to trade our effort (WHE.- Work Hour Equivalents ) for what we need or want. Barter is just not realistic for our complicated lives. So what is a good object to trade? Fish, beads, salt maybe? But as soon as some wiseguy finds a pile of one of these, he will be rich and not done any work and he will not be the last to do it. Valuation goes in the tank.(counterfeiting)


So how about a coin? Made of metal especially precious metal because it is hard to make or find more of it or counterfeit to dilute it’s value. But who makes this “Money”? If a independent business does, each merchant must trust the weight or weigh each piece, so transactions would be very local. Who knows if the private mint of “Far Away Land” is trustworthy?


How many people need to transact further away from “Local”? I don’t know this but just a thought?

On the other hand if a government mints the coinage or “money” it can legislate that it must be accepted, and in truth most citizens want to believe that the government will be honest and fair. But someone must play for this effort.


As Long as the merchants and citizens have faith or trust the value of the money it has value.

So….. why not get rid of the burden of coinage and use paper money????


Well, it still has to have the faith of the merchants and citizens. When I trade my WHE for a coin or paper money I want a fair trade. So when I trade for what I want or need, I want to know my WHE inside of that “money” are well spent. So "Money" is just a storage device for WHE’s, therefore it can be of anything agreed upon. Who would agree upon age device that reduces my WHE’s once it goes into the device? Still the device does not matter as long as it does the job.


But can you use lemons? I say not - yield on a lemon tree has zero correlation to WHE’s and if it was to be made so; everyone would have a lemon tree and some would find a way to have a huge harvest.


What about a promise from your local community bank they are nice people right? They can store the correct WHE’s and then debit the account upon a purchase or spending . If our story ends here, Yes! That would work. So private “money” issuance or banking still works; if the government will allow it.


If “money” gains value over time, very few people would spend it, because it would be worth more tomorrow. On the other hand in it looses value over time, you want to spend it yesterday; because it will be worth less tomorrow. In Nirvanastan (the idyllic kingdom) “money” is neutral in value and does not change, So you can store your WHE’s or spend them, depending on your values not the increase or decrease of the trading medium.


Currently in the good old USA, our money is loosing value, due to reasons addressed later. Therefore it makes the most sense is to spend that money NOW, here we have a simple reason for our consumption driven economy.


Just to buck the “conventional wisdom”, what if we spend our WHE’s right away, but not on consumables but on a investment or move that “money” back through our world, without owning it?


But can we continue to spend as our “Money” looses value? Is there an end to this road? Can changing what is used as “money” change this or have any effect at all?

Monday, January 10, 2011

So How does Money Work?

So with the ground work laid that the math is fine but it doesn’t account for human action and individual choices the Austrian school will need to be used for understand how we get from mathematical model to mathematical model.

So How does money work?

Well money is usually regarded as the metal and paper in your pocket with dead presidents on it. But hold on there Partner that’s a jump. In days of old there was no “money” so humans bartered. But, how many fish does it take in trade for a toga, or a mule? Or a vegetable to go with the fish? What if you trade a fish or grain or fresh produce for a chair or cart? One will be useless in a week and the other will just start to be useful? If our WHE (work hour equivalents) are stored up rather than traded daily we can “save” for that cool new chariot.

So we needed a neutral way to exchanges durable and non durable goods and services skip to the chase -- we used metal coinage; Gold being best, limited. valuable enough so a small amount was of high value (un like iron) a Roman solider with a ounce of it could buy a nice toga, good leather belt and fine leather footwear (still hold true today – a ounce of gold will buy a nice suit a good leather belt and fine footwear) Problem cured.

But Caesar being gluttonous with his spending (sound like any other governing body you may be familiar with) wanted to spend more than was being taken in (not that it was not a big number)

Boing! Bright Idea - Rather than increase the onerous taxes in place. Just take the coins and shave some metal off each one just a little to make more coins, (ie more coins, no more gold- oh yeah the new coins were supposed to be of the same value as the old ones Whoops)

Problem - when the next payday came around and the Centurion skips into the market to buy a fish for dinner and drops a coin. The merchant is shrewd and noticed that it was lighter in weight that every other coin he has received so he demands 2 light weight coins; Then quickly says “Have I gotta bargain for you, 3 coins for 2 fish”. Welcome to inflation, higher prices are a effect not a cause of inflation.

Can you see why a math only approach will not work in this story but human behavior is SO important to account for?

Friday, January 7, 2011

Praxeological and Mathematical Economics

PRESUPPOSITIONS we need to look at and see if they hold water.


Soft Science- human action and behavior is what drives activity and we need to watch behavior to determine (deductive reasoning) what will happen next

Hard Science- if you can account for all of the parameters you can model mathematically what has happened in the past to predict the future without knowing the behavior or individual choices


What is Praxeology? and What is Neoclassical ?

Praxeology- soft science of Human Action- individual purposeful behavior (Austrian)

Mathematical- the guys required to take Calculus and therefore use math (Neoclassical )


A apt quotation is as good as a original remark, SOooo the following text is from Gene Callahan's book Economics for Real People :

Mathematical economics models the phases of markets when plans are not being created or revised, in other words, when the events that are of interest to Austrian economists, human choices, are absent.


None of the above should be taken to mean that the mathematical approach to economics is useless, only that it cannot capture the essence of human action.


TODAY’S ECONOMIC MAINSTREAM—neoclassical economics—is thoroughly mathematical. The vast majority of papers in academic journals are dense with mathematical notation. Non mathematical approaches to the subject are often viewed as unscientific and imprecise.

However, the success of the mathematical approach in breaking new economic ground has been minimal. Bryan Caplan, admits, “[Mathematical approaches] have had fifty years of ever-increasing hegemony in economics. The empirical evidence on their contribution is decidedly negative.”

The study of the correlations provided by mathematical descriptions of events is central to physics and chemistry because in those fields we can determine constants of correlation that allow us to make predictions. We feel confident that electrons will not suddenly decide that they aren’t quite so attracted to protons, and that oxygen will not come to the conclusion that it would really prefer to bond with three hydrogen molecules rather than two.

Neoclassical Economists (the math guys) remove the very subject matter of praxeological economics, human action, from their theories.

Austrian - (Praxeology)-the logic of economic events, not the correlations existing between them is the key

The fact that supply and demand curves can give us a rough picture of market behavior is an effect of human action, and certainly not the cause of it.

No one acts with the goal of bringing supply and demand into balance.


---I which I could have said it better---

Thursday, January 6, 2011

What if its All (almost All) Junk Science?

What if Economics is not a hard science and everybody that treats it as such have it wrong ? What if those who treat it as a Soft Science are wrong?

These are the questions we need to ask if we are to have a belief, schema, paradigm, model or frame of reference to look at How Money Works.

Remember that if our system does not work if every situation its time for a review of how we think

Simply if the soft science view is wrong then- The math model is correct and it can be falsified and the presuppositions that: humans make individual decisions (freewill) both good and bad with a finite about of resources (WEH - work equivalent hours) we put forth to save (capital, extra time off or bartered good or services) in a way to spend on what we value. As well, if wrong - the deductive methodology by observation is inaccurate. Humans move in groups regardless of individual interest, what a minute? that sound like Marx
Is this possible, yeah it could be - But I think not, but that's just me

What if the Hard science model is flawed, then - Deductions based upon observation is wrong, (therefore we must live in a alternate universe if we can not trust reason and observation) But math was invented, whoops discovered, and universal no matter what. The law of large numbers does work in every instance of large homo genius groups and even with non corollary events. Human behavior may not fall with in the Gaussian model or "bell curve" Human behavior must be wrong and not accounted for. The math may be right but the presuppositions are wrong or the opposite that the presuppositions are correct and the math is wrong, the math is probably not wrong. Math models ALWAYS WORK, in the laboratory. humans seem to throw a monkey wrench in it when they are left to their own devices. Individual Human behavior is a outlier, and has no effect on economics.

There's the rub, it's the presuppositions that are at issue.

Back to Logic GE-101,
If you accept the presupposition and make a logical argument you must accept the conclusion.

In truth both models are logical, though different methods, both are logical. So we must look at the presuppositions in order to determine if the model is usable.

Tuesday, January 4, 2011

Pair of Dimes

Economic thought is somewhat limited to Russian, Germanic, Keynesian, Monetarist and Austrian schools (and a few pick and choose the pieces they like in each pile and ignore that they don't work together; we will summarily dismiss these heretics ).

Thomas Taylor concisely summarizes these schools as follows-(with some commentary added)

German historical school -
Sought to discover economic truth through the study of economic history. History repeating that's what you've got- these guy's are definitely looking out the back window they will be right, but after the fact.

Monetarist -
They Love free market economy, but everything has to move as one unit for their mathematical formulas to hold. Freewill and choice on a individual basis is not considered.

Keynsian-
For such a brilliant thinker he forgot to think through his theory, the last vestiges of hold outs follow this, but we have all seen this dons not work. this basic model is Government spends like a drunken sailor in recession and then government gets drunk on the power of spending and never wants to slowdown let alone quite. Don't forget the perfect competition ad pure monopoly none of which the world has ever seen, but it looks good in a book. oh yeah they love Math too.

Russians-
The thoughts of Marx are really regurgitated from the Anti-Baptist centuries earlier, Truthfully Communism is the finest form of government there is, right up until you add people. By the time you have the third person, Somebody wants more than he needs or somebody does not want to give as she is able. "From each according to his ability, To each according to his need". This model works best for separatist theocracies. (Amish, Quakers, Hippies and the like) Otherwise you end up with a dictatorship that calls itself socialism.

Austrians-
Only a couple of these guy where Austrian, but whatever. Uses deductive reason as opposed to Mathematics. Conceptual understanding , not quantitative relationships. A important characteristic is it's methodological individualism.Belief that economics in not a social force, social hypnotism or "society". Rather result of conduct of individuals engaged in activity. Human error, and uncertainty of the future and the inescapable passage of time is given due attention. Unfortunately no politician is going to fall on their sword to implement this model, it just won't advance their own careers. I do not believe this school will ever see Washington, unless the Tea Party brings it along.

So what are we to do?

A Pair of Dimes (paradigm) is how we look at the world, if you have read any self help book psychology text, sports coach or business periodical you have been hit over and over with the idea that we have Free Will and can choose how we think and what we do.

--- For those who hold predestination tight, **stop reading ** I will not persuade you and I don't want to get you upset------

Really if it is predetermined what will happen? why try! if you are going to Hell enjoy the debauchery, attending sunday school won't change it. If you are going to heaven , debauchery just won't be for you anyway, as one of the elect you will not be interested. This hold for personal and financial success too.

On the other hand if you have freewill and can choose you can make good and bad choices - I know, I've done both.

We must look at models and reason or think to see if they are true and work forever though out all of our lives, if they don't time to reevaluate (it's ok to do that ). We must choose to make the best decisions we can maybe, not the popular one or the easy one, but the best one.

Money, Econoimics and Truth - a starting point

Economics, Finance, Money - how do we analyze all of these? Who cares?

How do we know if we are being led down the proverbial primrose path, or we are actually advancing our values, lives and families?

How do we now what is truth ?

In order to not go crazy any belief system - MUST be used throughout every part of our entire lives (or we will be accused of being a hypocrite, and "they" will be right). If it does not work everywhere every time it needs to be reviewed.
If there is NO truth - then why do we breath in? why do we let go of our keys and expect them to fall to the desk? There must be some truths that are eternal.

The hard sciences use empirical data and hypothesis and look for the evidence to prove it. But what would happen if a sociologists or psychologist did the same? If a event does not repeat with enough predictability it must be a soft science. Can you prove you were born? Scientifically - do it again to prove it. Can someone else repeat the experiment? NO with your birth. Then how can you get "peer review" (don't start, yes it is self feeding and back slapping garbage, but it's scientific)
Deductive reason is how we look at obvious pieces of data and see the pattern. Sherlock holmes and Patrick Jane are wonderfully written and entertaining examples of deductive detective work.

If Economics is a deductive science- whoops maybe it's not a science, maybe it's just human behavior skewed through a lens of our values and how we live them out.

What are you talking about?

If we as humans have effort over a limited time on this earth to advance our values could it be that economics is the study of how individuals do that? As well as, how many of them gather together in a tribe or clan? We work to: eat, clothe, shelter and repopulate; after these Maslovian things are covered we move toward self actualization. So isn't our Years of Work traded for the things we spend that capital on and the things we give up to advance our careers and secure our families are less valuable than the pile of work hours we are trading and storing away in a "spendable " format. For it they were not less valuable then we would not show up to work or quite.
So what we spend our work hour equivalents (WHE) on, is in reality our Life's Work. So the study of our WHE is economics.
Spend it, hoard it, save it, give it away, leave it, enjoy it, sell it, multiply it - What , when , where, how and Why is the - study of economics. It can not be proved with a hypothesis, it can be deduced with reason and thought.