Thursday, January 6, 2011

What if its All (almost All) Junk Science?

What if Economics is not a hard science and everybody that treats it as such have it wrong ? What if those who treat it as a Soft Science are wrong?

These are the questions we need to ask if we are to have a belief, schema, paradigm, model or frame of reference to look at How Money Works.

Remember that if our system does not work if every situation its time for a review of how we think

Simply if the soft science view is wrong then- The math model is correct and it can be falsified and the presuppositions that: humans make individual decisions (freewill) both good and bad with a finite about of resources (WEH - work equivalent hours) we put forth to save (capital, extra time off or bartered good or services) in a way to spend on what we value. As well, if wrong - the deductive methodology by observation is inaccurate. Humans move in groups regardless of individual interest, what a minute? that sound like Marx
Is this possible, yeah it could be - But I think not, but that's just me

What if the Hard science model is flawed, then - Deductions based upon observation is wrong, (therefore we must live in a alternate universe if we can not trust reason and observation) But math was invented, whoops discovered, and universal no matter what. The law of large numbers does work in every instance of large homo genius groups and even with non corollary events. Human behavior may not fall with in the Gaussian model or "bell curve" Human behavior must be wrong and not accounted for. The math may be right but the presuppositions are wrong or the opposite that the presuppositions are correct and the math is wrong, the math is probably not wrong. Math models ALWAYS WORK, in the laboratory. humans seem to throw a monkey wrench in it when they are left to their own devices. Individual Human behavior is a outlier, and has no effect on economics.

There's the rub, it's the presuppositions that are at issue.

Back to Logic GE-101,
If you accept the presupposition and make a logical argument you must accept the conclusion.

In truth both models are logical, though different methods, both are logical. So we must look at the presuppositions in order to determine if the model is usable.

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